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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUL 26 2001
 
DALILA HAS FORMED A LARGE CDO-LIKE FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER APPEARS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE STRONGEST
-80C CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...
AND AFWA ARE 65 KT...45 KT...AND 45 KT RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 55 KT.

THE STORM SEEMS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...AND THE INITIAL 
MOTION IS NOW 290/7.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN EITHER THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY OR THE MODEL SPREAD DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR
24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST.  THE TRACK IS
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER.

DALILA IS STILL UNDERGOING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THE 
EFFECTS OF THIS SEEM TO BE LIMITED TO SOME EROSION OF CONVECTION IN
THE EASTER SEMICIRCLE.  WHILE THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER 26C SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...DALILA SHOULD BE OVER 24C-25C WATER IN 24 HR
AND 23C IN 72 HR.  ONCE THIS HAPPENS...STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD
OCCUR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
  
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/2100Z 20.2N 114.9W    55 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 20.6N 116.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     27/1800Z 21.1N 117.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     28/0600Z 21.5N 119.3W    40 KTS
48HR VT     28/1800Z 21.8N 121.1W    30 KTS
72HR VT     29/1800Z 22.0N 123.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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