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HURRICANE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUL 24 2001
 
THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER DALILA HAS BEEN INCREASING STEADILY 
FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS... 
THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE WELL EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION.  
THERE IS NO BANDING VISIBLE...BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF A WARM SPOT IN 
THE MIDDLE OF THE CDO THAT MIGHT PRESAGE THE APPEARANCE OF AN EYE.  
SATELLITE-BASED DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 
NOW 65 KT...AND ON THIS BASIS DALILA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.  A 
QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 01Z INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS 
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS VERY SMALL. 

THE MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...285/9.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS 
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD.  GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF 
A MID- TO UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA.  THE ONLY EFFECT OF THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE A SLOWING OF 
THE FORWARD SPEED AFTER 24-36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS 
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL/AVN/ 
UKMET CONSENSUS. 

NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DALILA WILL DO A 
LOT MORE DEEPENING.  SSTS SHOULD BE GOOD FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS...SO A 
MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST.  ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL 
KEEPS DALILA A HURRICANE FOR 72 HOURS...THE AVN WEAKENS THE SYSTEM 
VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATES IT BY 60.  WHILE THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A CONSERVATIVE WEAKENING TREND...GIVEN 
THE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION...I THINK THE AVN MIGHT HAVE THE RIGHT 
IDEA.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 18.2N 108.5W    65 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 18.6N 109.9W    70 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 19.0N 111.5W    75 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 19.3N 112.7W    75 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 19.6N 114.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 116.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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