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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2001
 
DALILA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND NOW 
APPEARS TO BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A HURRICANE.  SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEVELOPED CDO PATTERN WITH COLD 
OVERSHOOTING TOPS OF -80C TO -83C CLOSE TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT 
SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
INCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 
55 TO 60...T3.5 PLUS...FROM TAFB AND SAB.

ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING 
DALILA WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN TURNING THE CYCLONE 
WESTWARD AFTER THAT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH SUCH A LARGE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE 
TO PREVIOUS THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE UKMET MODEL.

CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER CONTINUE TO COOL AND DALILA MAY ALREADY 
BE A HURRICANE.  THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...BUT 
THAT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE 
MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO.  THE CDO AND OVERSHOOTING TOPS 
PATTERN THAT HAS PERSISTED DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS SUGGESTS THAT 
POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND/OR 
TOMORROW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY 
MODELS.  IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...DELILA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING 
OVER SUB-26C SST WATER AND THIS SHOULD BEGIN THE STEADY WEAKENING 
TREND WHICH IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0300Z 17.9N 107.6W    60 KTS
12HR VT     24/1200Z 18.3N 108.9W    65 KTS
24HR VT     25/0000Z 18.7N 110.6W    70 KTS
36HR VT     25/1200Z 19.0N 112.2W    75 KTS
48HR VT     26/0000Z 19.3N 113.7W    70 KTS
72HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 116.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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