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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2001
DALILA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND NOW
APPEARS TO BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A HURRICANE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEVELOPED CDO PATTERN WITH COLD
OVERSHOOTING TOPS OF -80C TO -83C CLOSE TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT
SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 TO 60...T3.5 PLUS...FROM TAFB AND SAB.
ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING
DALILA WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN TURNING THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD AFTER THAT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH SUCH A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE UKMET MODEL.
CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER CONTINUE TO COOL AND DALILA MAY ALREADY
BE A HURRICANE. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...BUT
THAT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO. THE CDO AND OVERSHOOTING TOPS
PATTERN THAT HAS PERSISTED DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS SUGGESTS THAT
POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND/OR
TOMORROW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY
MODELS. IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...DELILA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING
OVER SUB-26C SST WATER AND THIS SHOULD BEGIN THE STEADY WEAKENING
TREND WHICH IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 17.9N 107.6W 60 KTS
12HR VT 24/1200Z 18.3N 108.9W 65 KTS
24HR VT 25/0000Z 18.7N 110.6W 70 KTS
36HR VT 25/1200Z 19.0N 112.2W 75 KTS
48HR VT 26/0000Z 19.3N 113.7W 70 KTS
72HR VT 27/0000Z 19.5N 116.0W 65 KTS
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