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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2001
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT 
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.  THE DEEP CONVECTION SHOWS LITTLE 
EVIDENCE OF BANDING...AND UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE 
RESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  DALILA REMAINS 
IN AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.  OUR BEST INTENSITY 
FORECASTING GUIDANCE...SHIPS...CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT THE STORM 
WILL STRENGTHEN.  IN VIEW OF THIS...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE 
SHEAR MAY RELAX SOMEWHAT...WE ARE STILL CALLING FOR DALILA TO BECOME 
A HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS PREDICTION IS NOT HIGH.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS STILL NOT WELL-DEFINED...BEST ESTIMATE IS 
THAT THE TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  
THIS REQUIRES A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  A WEAK 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF DALILA FOR THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT 
SHOWN BY THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 17.8N 106.9W    55 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 18.4N 108.4W    60 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N 110.2W    65 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 19.4N 111.8W    70 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 19.7N 113.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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