ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2001

THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION...WHICH 
ALSO MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE INTENSITY.  IF THE CENTER 
IS EMBEDDED FARTHER INTO THE DENSE OVERCAST THAN WE CURRENTLY 
THINK...DALILA COULD BE STRONGER.  SINCE THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE 
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...WE WILL ASSUME THAT THE CENTER 
IS STILL ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION.  
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KNOTS.  IT IS NOT CERTAIN 
THAT DALILA WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE SHEAR...AND STRENGTHEN AS 
THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING.  GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE SOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR PERSISTING OVER THE 
SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE PREDICTED INTENSITY HAS BEEN 
REDUCED A LITTLE FURTHER...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST 
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT...TO NEAR 12 KT.  THE CURRENT 
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED TO THE 
NORTH OF DALILA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST IS ALSO IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE 
GFDL...U.K. MET...NOGAPS AND AVN MODELS TRACKS. 
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 17.8N 106.0W    55 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 18.7N 107.7W    60 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 19.5N 109.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 20.0N 111.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 20.5N 112.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 21.0N 115.0W    65 KTS
 
 
NNNN