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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2001
THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION...WHICH
ALSO MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE INTENSITY. IF THE CENTER
IS EMBEDDED FARTHER INTO THE DENSE OVERCAST THAN WE CURRENTLY
THINK...DALILA COULD BE STRONGER. SINCE THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...WE WILL ASSUME THAT THE CENTER
IS STILL ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KNOTS. IT IS NOT CERTAIN
THAT DALILA WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE SHEAR...AND STRENGTHEN AS
THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE SOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR PERSISTING OVER THE
SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PREDICTED INTENSITY HAS BEEN
REDUCED A LITTLE FURTHER...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
SHIPS GUIDANCE.
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT...TO NEAR 12 KT. THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED TO THE
NORTH OF DALILA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ALSO IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GFDL...U.K. MET...NOGAPS AND AVN MODELS TRACKS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 17.8N 106.0W 55 KTS
12HR VT 24/0000Z 18.7N 107.7W 60 KTS
24HR VT 24/1200Z 19.5N 109.5W 65 KTS
36HR VT 25/0000Z 20.0N 111.0W 70 KTS
48HR VT 25/1200Z 20.5N 112.5W 70 KTS
72HR VT 26/1200Z 21.0N 115.0W 65 KTS
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