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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2001
 
THE APPEARANCE OF DALILA ON IR IMAGES IS DISTINCTLY RAGGED AS STRONG 
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES.  THE DVORAK T NUMBER FROM SAB IS 
COMING DOWN...AND THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.  THE AVN 
SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL DIMINISH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE 
SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW STRENGTHENING...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS 
BEFORE.  THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST BY THE UKMET DOES NOT LOOK 
QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS THE AVN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS 
UNENTHUSIASTICALLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...UKMET...
AND AVN.

THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON THE 0100 QUIKSCAT
PASS...WHICH SHOWS VERY LITTLE WIND OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE PASS ALSO SHOWS NO CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH
THE TROPICAL STORM...A COMPLETELY WRONG RESULT THAT ILLUSTRATES ONE
OF THE DIFFICULTIES IN INTERPRETING SCATTEROMETER DATA.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0900Z 17.4N 105.1W    55 KTS
12HR VT     23/1800Z 18.4N 107.1W    60 KTS
24HR VT     24/0600Z 19.3N 109.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     24/1800Z 19.9N 110.6W    70 KTS
48HR VT     25/0600Z 20.5N 112.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     26/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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