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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2001
THE APPEARANCE OF DALILA ON IR IMAGES IS DISTINCTLY RAGGED AS STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES. THE DVORAK T NUMBER FROM SAB IS
COMING DOWN...AND THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT. THE AVN
SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL DIMINISH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE
SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW STRENGTHENING...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS
BEFORE. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST BY THE UKMET DOES NOT LOOK
QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS THE AVN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
UNENTHUSIASTICALLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...UKMET...
AND AVN.
THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON THE 0100 QUIKSCAT
PASS...WHICH SHOWS VERY LITTLE WIND OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE PASS ALSO SHOWS NO CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH
THE TROPICAL STORM...A COMPLETELY WRONG RESULT THAT ILLUSTRATES ONE
OF THE DIFFICULTIES IN INTERPRETING SCATTEROMETER DATA.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 17.4N 105.1W 55 KTS
12HR VT 23/1800Z 18.4N 107.1W 60 KTS
24HR VT 24/0600Z 19.3N 109.0W 65 KTS
36HR VT 24/1800Z 19.9N 110.6W 70 KTS
48HR VT 25/0600Z 20.5N 112.0W 75 KTS
72HR VT 26/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W 70 KTS
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