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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN JUL 22 2001
 
ON SATELLITE IMAGES...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH NOT
MUCH EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND THE AIR FORCE
WEATHER AGENCY ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE LOWER.  EVEN WITH THE FIRST FEW
VISIBLE IMAGES...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR THE CENTER IS
EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THUS HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM IS.
WATER VAPOR WINDS SUGGEST SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...WHICH
COULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT IS ASSUMED
THAT DALILA WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE SHEAR AND STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE STATUS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 295/13.  THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN 
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD KEEP DALILA FROM GETTING MUCH CLOSER 
TO THE COAST.  THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODEL SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE BAJA 
PENINSULA NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER BASED ON THE 
SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY 
CLUSTERED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE WEST- NORTHWEST 
MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NONETHELESS...ONLY A SMALL DEPARTURE OF 
THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT WOULD BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO 
THE COAST.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 15.3N 101.3W    60 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 16.0N 103.1W    65 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 16.9N 105.1W    70 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 17.8N 107.0W    80 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 18.5N 108.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 20.0N 111.5W    85 KTS
 
 
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