ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN JUL 22 2001
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAINED AT 55 KT AT 
06Z.  SINCE THAT TIME COLD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED...AND ALTHOUGH THE 
CENTER IS STILL ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...IT 
SEEMS TO BE EMBEDDED A LITTLE BETTER NOW.  THE INTENSITY IS 
INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 
DALILA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON.  THE GFDL SHOWS VERY RAPID 
STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 100 KT IN 12 HOURS...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY 
GIVEN THE CURRENT SHEAR LEVELS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/13...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
THE SYNOPTIC THINKING IS UNCHANGED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER...AND IN THE
MIDDLE OF A FAIRLY TIGHT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  BOTH THE AVN AND UKMET
BUILD THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT DALILA FROM GETTING MUCH CLOSER TO
THE COAST.  HOWEVER...ONLY A MODEST DEPARTURE OF THE TRACK TO THE
RIGHT WOULD BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE COAST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0900Z 14.6N 100.1W    60 KTS
12HR VT     22/1800Z 15.4N 101.7W    65 KTS
24HR VT     23/0600Z 16.4N 103.8W    70 KTS
36HR VT     23/1800Z 17.2N 105.4W    80 KTS
48HR VT     24/0600Z 18.0N 107.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     25/0600Z 19.5N 110.0W    85 KTS
 
 
NNNN