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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT JUL 21 2001

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB INDICATE THAT WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS.  THE CENTER IS LOCATED UNDER DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR.  BECAUSE THE OCEAN IS WARM AND
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED
AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.  UNANIMOUSLY...ALL AVAILABLE MODELS MAKE
DALILA A HURRICANE.

DALILA IS MOVING 300 AT 11 KNOTS.  THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE
NORTH TO KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK.  A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN ENSEMBLE BUT A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE RELIABLE GFDL WHICH BRINGS DALILA CLOSER TO THE COAST.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT A SMALL
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH WOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST...A
HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 13.8N  98.7W    55 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 15.0N 100.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 16.0N 102.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N 104.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 18.0N 105.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 19.0N 108.0W    85 KTS
 
 
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