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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUL 21 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11.  THE AVIATION MODEL
MAINTAINS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM SO THAT THE INTIAL 
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE TRACK 
GUIDANCE MODELS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY EXCEPT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT. 

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS AND SO HAS THE 
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE WIND UP TO 85 
KNOTS BY 48 HOURS FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL.  THE GFDL MODEL IS EVEN 
MORE AGGRESSIVE.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND SPEED RADII BRING 35 KNOT WINDS ALMOST 
TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE 
CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN HURRICANE WARNING LATER TONIGHT 
OR EARLY SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF DALILA.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 13.5N  97.5W    45 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 14.2N  98.8W    55 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 15.1N 100.6W    65 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.7N 102.1W    75 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.2N 103.6W    85 KTS
72HR VT     24/1800Z 17.0N 106.0W    85 KTS
  
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