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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUL 21 2001
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. THE AVIATION MODEL
MAINTAINS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM SO THAT THE INTIAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MODELS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY EXCEPT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS AND SO HAS THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE WIND UP TO 85
KNOTS BY 48 HOURS FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL. THE GFDL MODEL IS EVEN
MORE AGGRESSIVE.
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND SPEED RADII BRING 35 KNOT WINDS ALMOST
TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE
CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN HURRICANE WARNING LATER TONIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF DALILA.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 13.5N 97.5W 45 KTS
12HR VT 22/0600Z 14.2N 98.8W 55 KTS
24HR VT 22/1800Z 15.1N 100.6W 65 KTS
36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.7N 102.1W 75 KTS
48HR VT 23/1800Z 16.2N 103.6W 85 KTS
72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.0N 106.0W 85 KTS
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