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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUL 21 2001

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW
A CONTINUATION OF THIS MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY AND THIS BRINGS THE CENTER TO WITHIN ABOUT 150 N MI OF THE 
MEXICAN COAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THIS IS THE BASIS
FOR A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE 
SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DALIA.  WITH WARM WATER AND 
LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD...THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO 65 KNOTS 
BY 36 HOURS AND TO 80 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS 
INTENSITY MODEL.  THE GFDL MODEL IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE.  IN 
CONTRAST TO THE FORECAST INTENSITY...THE LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES 
SHOW A DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE ONLY TEMPORARY.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 12.6N  96.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 13.3N  97.6W    45 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 14.1N  99.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 14.5N 101.7W    65 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 15.0N 103.6W    75 KTS
72HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 107.0W    80 KTS
  
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