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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUL 21 2001
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW
A CONTINUATION OF THIS MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND THIS BRINGS THE CENTER TO WITHIN ABOUT 150 N MI OF THE
MEXICAN COAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE BASIS
FOR A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE
SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DALIA. WITH WARM WATER AND
LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD...THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO 65 KNOTS
BY 36 HOURS AND TO 80 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL. THE GFDL MODEL IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE. IN
CONTRAST TO THE FORECAST INTENSITY...THE LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE ONLY TEMPORARY.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 12.6N 96.1W 35 KTS
12HR VT 22/0000Z 13.3N 97.6W 45 KTS
24HR VT 22/1200Z 14.1N 99.5W 55 KTS
36HR VT 23/0000Z 14.5N 101.7W 65 KTS
48HR VT 23/1200Z 15.0N 103.6W 75 KTS
72HR VT 24/1200Z 16.0N 107.0W 80 KTS
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