ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2001
ERICK IS A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH NO DEEP
CONVECTION. AS SUCH IT IS UNCLASSIFIABLE VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
SINCE A DATA T-NUMBER CAN NO LONGER BE ASSIGNED. ALTHOUGH
SCATTEROMETER DATA MORE THAN 12 HOURS AGO SHOWED SOME SPOTS OF 35 KT
SURFACE WINDS IN THE SYSTEM...IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE CYCLONE HAS
SPUN DOWN FURTHER SINCE THEN...AND THAT IT IS NOW BELOW STORM
STRENGTH. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS PREDICTED AS THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER SUB-CRITICAL SSTS.
THE MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. NONETHELESS
THE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...AND CLOSE TO THE 06Z NCEP GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTION.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 20.5N 127.8W 30 KTS
12HR VT 24/0000Z 21.0N 129.1W 30 KTS
24HR VT 24/1200Z 21.3N 130.8W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 25/0000Z 21.5N 132.5W 25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 25/1200Z 21.5N 134.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 26/1200Z 21.5N 136.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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