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TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2001
 
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF ERICK REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED BUT THE TOPS
CONTINUE TO COOL.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 AND
35 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 03Z STILL SHOWED 35 KT
WINDS...A BIT SURPRISING GIVEN THE COLD WATER...AND SO THE SYSTEM IS
KEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO 
THE REASONING OR TRACK OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND ERICK SHOULD 
BEGIN TO TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AS THE 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER 22-23 DEGREE WATER.

AS THE CYCLONE ENTRAINS MORE COOL STABLE AIR IT SHOULD SPIN DOWN... 
BUT GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION THIS SPIN-DOWN MAY TAKE A 
WHILE.  ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW WITHIN 
24-36 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0900Z 20.1N 127.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     23/1800Z 20.6N 128.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     24/0600Z 21.0N 130.5W    25 KTS
36HR VT     24/1800Z 21.3N 132.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N 133.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     26/0600Z 21.5N 135.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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