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TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT JUL 21 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERICK HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION
SURROUNDED BY TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS AND LACKS OF AN INNER CORE.
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS AS SUGGESTED BY T-NUMBERS AND
THE FORECAST BRINGS THE WINDS TO 40 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...ERICK IS
RUNNING OUT OF TIME FOR INTENSIFICATION SINCE IT IS ABOUT 24 HOURS
FROM COOL WATERS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING 310 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  BY
THEN...ERICK SHOULD BE DISSIPATING.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 17.3N 121.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 18.3N 123.3W    40 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 19.0N 125.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 20.0N 126.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 20.5N 127.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 21.0N 128.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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