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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUL 21 2001
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/09. THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH PERHAPS A SLOWING OF
THE FOREWARD SPEED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH THE TAFB INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A
SOMEWHAT ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE
CENTER IS UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION OR DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. ALSO
SAB AND KGWC ESTIMATES ARE BELOW STORM STRENGTH. WITH THIS
UNCERTAINTY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE KEPT AT DEPRESSION STATUS. WITH
COLDER SSTS AHEAD...THERE IS NOT MUCH TIME LEFT FOR STRENGTHENING.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 15.6N 119.5W 30 KTS
12HR VT 22/0000Z 16.5N 120.6W 35 KTS
24HR VT 22/1200Z 17.5N 122.0W 40 KTS
36HR VT 23/0000Z 18.4N 123.5W 40 KTS
48HR VT 23/1200Z 19.2N 125.0W 35 KTS
72HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 126.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
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