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TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2001
 
THE EARLIER BURST OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF COSME HAS 
DISSIPATED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM TAFB... 
SAB...AND AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 25 KT.  
THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 15/0118Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS... 
WHICH SHOWED A FEW SPOTS OF 25 KT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/06.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY PHILOSOPHIES.  COSME IS MOVING OVER 
COLDER WATER WITH COOLER WATER AHEAD OF IT.  THE RESULT SHOULD 
BE CONTINUED WEAKENING AND A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM THAT WILL BE 
STEERED SLOWLY WESTWARD...OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...BY THE STRONG 
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  COSME COULD EVEN DISSIPATE BEFORE THE 
END OF TODAY.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 19.1N 116.8W    25 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.3N 117.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     16/0600Z 19.5N 118.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     16/1800Z 19.6N 119.6W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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