HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/15.  THE AVIATION MODEL CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE EAST-WEST RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR 125W
LONGITUDE.  THIS SHOULD SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION AS FORECAST BY THE
GFDL AND UKMET MODELS.  THE NOGAPS IS A LITTLE FASTER WHILE THE
AVIATION MODEL DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM AFTER TWO DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SLOWING THE
FORWARD SPEED TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 36 HOURS.  THIS IS STILL FASTER THAT 
THE SLOW GFDL AND UKMET BUT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
 
A SYMMETRIC COLD CDO FEATURE PERSISTS.  THE TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS 45 KNOTS...SAB IS 35 KNOTS...AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL IS
EVEN LESS.  THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS FOR THIS
ADVISORY AND FORECAST TO 60 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL UNDER LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE STORM SHOULD ENCOUNTER 
COLDER SSTS IN 48 HOURS OR SO..AFTER WHICH WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 16.5N 112.2W    40 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 17.4N 114.2W    50 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 18.1N 116.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     15/1800Z 19.0N 119.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     16/1800Z 19.1N 120.0W    50 KTS
  
NNNN