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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2001
 
IR IMAGES SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN
CONVECTION AND THERE IS ENOUGH CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS TO
CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE DEPRESSION IS UNDER
EASTERLY SHEAR AND ABOUT TWO DAYS FROM COLD WATERS.  NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 11
KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE TRACK
MODELS...WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0900Z 15.8N 108.9W    25 KTS
12HR VT     13/1800Z 16.5N 111.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     14/0600Z 17.5N 113.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     15/0600Z 19.5N 117.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     16/0600Z 20.5N 120.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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