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TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUN 21 2001
 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BANDING
HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 9-12 HOURS.  DVORAK-BASED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM KGWC...TO A CONSTRAINED 55 KT FROM TAFB.  A 
QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 14Z SHOWED NOTHING HIGHER THAN 35 KT.  THE 
OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT AND IS PROBABLY GENEROUS.  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BARBARA IS MOVING INTO AN 
INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  A CONTINUATION OF THIS WEAKENING 
TREND IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 48-72 HOURS.

BARBARA HAS BEEN MOVING ON A VERY STEADY TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST 
FOR THE PAST THREE DAYS.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13... 
ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  AS THE CONVECTION WEAKENS THE CYCLONE 
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND TURN TO THE WEST.  
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 15.3N 135.9W    45 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 16.0N 137.8W    40 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 16.9N 140.4W    35 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 143.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 18.0N 145.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     24/1800Z 18.5N 150.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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