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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED JUN 20 2001
 
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING... 
CONSISTING MOSTLY OF SHORT-LIVED BLOBS WITH LITTLE BANDING.  AS A 
RESULT...MOST OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN BELOW 
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  OUTFLOW IS DECENT AND THE WATER IS STILL 
WARM...SO STRENGTHING TO A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER... 
THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN 24 TO 36 
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.  THE GFDL DISSIPATES THE 
SYSTEM WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND SHIPS WITHIN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. 

THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH IR IMAGERY...BUT THE INITIAL 
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/13.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT WAS 
NOT MUCH HELP...WHICH HELPS CONFIRM THE LIMITED ORGANIZATION OF THE 
SYSTEM.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC 
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE UPPER COLD LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE 
CENTERED NEAR 24N/147W.  THIS LOW COULD DEFLECT THE CYCLONE TO A 
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS THE 
SYSTEM DECAYS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE INFLUENCE OF THE 
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR 
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN...A MODEL WHICH HAS 
HANDLED THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE COOLER WATERS...AS WELL AS THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER 
COLD LOW...SHOULD PREVENT THIS SYSTEM FROM BEING A SIGNIFICANT 
THREAT TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/1500Z 12.2N 129.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     21/0000Z 12.4N 131.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     21/1200Z 13.4N 134.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     22/0000Z 14.7N 136.3W    45 KTS
48HR VT     22/1200Z 16.0N 138.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     23/1200Z 18.5N 143.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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