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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED JUN 20 2001
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ORGANIZED IN CURVED BANDS BUT IS
INTERMITTENT. SINCE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST SIX
HOUR...WINDS ARE KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED UNDER A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION AND WILL LIKELY REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE
OVER COOLER WATERS AND MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR
CAUSED BY A LARGE UPPER-LOW NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. IN
FACT...MOST OF THE MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY INCLUDING THE
GFDL WHICH DISSIPATES THE DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. ONLY THE
AVN KEEPS A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL VORTMAX FOR A FEW DAYS.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 12 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A 500 MB RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL
MODELS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A
TRACK MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL. IN
THE LONG RANGE...BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
PROBABLY BE A WEAKENING SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED MORE TO THE WEST BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
NOTE: ONE COULD SPECULATE THAT THE FORMATION OF TWO-E COINCIDED WITH
THE ARRIVAL TO THE AREA OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE
MADDEN/JULIAN OSCILLATION AS SHOWN IN THE NCEP CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER (CPC) GRAPHIC OF 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALY.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0900Z 12.2N 128.5W 30 KTS
12HR VT 20/1800Z 12.5N 130.5W 40 KTS
24HR VT 21/0600Z 13.5N 133.0W 50 KTS
36HR VT 21/1800Z 14.5N 135.5W 50 KTS
48HR VT 22/0600Z 16.0N 138.0W 40 KTS
72HR VT 23/0600Z 19.0N 143.0W 30 KTS
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