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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUN 19 2001
 
THE STRONG TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BANDING 
FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T2.0 (30 KT) AT 20/00Z.  OUTFLOW IS GOOD 
IN ALL QUADRANTS OWING TO AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT 
HAS DEVELOPED.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  DUE TO 
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BROAD SYSTEM CENTER... 
THE FUTURE TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM IS STILL SOMEWHAT VAGUE.  MOST OF 
OUR MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST 
BY 12 HOURS AND CONTINUING THAT TRACK MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS.  
HOWEVER...AFTER THAT CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS AMONG THE 
VARIOUS MODELS.  THE 12Z UKMET MODEL DID NOT EVEN SEEN THIS RATHER 
LARGE CIRCULATION AND LOSES IT AFTER 24 HOURS.  THE 12Z NOGAPS AND 
18Z AVN RUNS WERE SIMILAR THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH NOGAPS WEAKENING THE 
SYSTEM AND TAKING IT OFF MORE TOWARD THE WEST IN THE GENERAL 
DIRECTION OF HAWAII...WHILE THE AVN GRADUALLY TURNS THE SYSTEM MORE 
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW 
CURRENTLY SITUATED NORTHEAST OF HAWAII.  LBAR AND THE DEEP BAM MODEL 
APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING FROM THEIR USUAL EARLY RECURVATURE BIAS.  THE 
OFFICAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 
THE PERIOD SINCE ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE UPPER- 
LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF HAWAII TO GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD.

BASED ON THE RAPID INCREASE IN BANDING FEATURES DURING THE PAST 3 
HOURS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E MAY ALREADY BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM 
INTENSITY.  WITH SUCH A WELL DEVELOPED OUTFLOW PATTERN AND NO 
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM THROUGH 48 
HOURS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL COOLER WATER IS 
REACHED IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  AFTERWARDS...STEADY WEAKENING IS 
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SUB-25C SST WATER AND INCREASING 
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR DEVELOPS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL 
ONLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 46 KT IN 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THAT 
OUTPUT WAS BASED ON THE LBAR MODEL WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM QUICKLY 
NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS.  IF TROPICAL DPRESSION TWO-E TRACKS A LITTLE 
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OFFICAL FORECAST TRACK INDICATES...THEN IT 
WOULD REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER AND POSSIBLY BECOME A HURRICANE.

FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 12.0N 127.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 12.4N 129.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 13.0N 131.7W    50 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 13.8N 134.2W    60 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 15.0N 136.7W    55 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 17.5N 141.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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