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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUN 01 2001
IT HAS BEEN AT LEAST 12 HOURS SINCE ADOLPH HAS PRODUCED ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
NOW BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1300Z DID
SHOW THAT THE INTENSITY THEN WAS AT LEAST 30 KT. CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND IF ADOLPH DOES NOT GENERATE ANY
CONVECTION SOON IT WILL NO LONGER QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING AT 295/4. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WILDLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL TAKING THE
REMNANTS EAST...WHILE THE BAMS CONTINUE OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
THE AVN SHOWS LITTLE MOTION...AND THAT IS THE SOLUTION INDICATED BY
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 16.5N 112.8W 30 KTS
12HR VT 02/0600Z 16.8N 113.3W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 03/0600Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 03/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 04/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
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