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TROPICAL STORM ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUN 01 2001
 
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...SSMI AND QUICKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT ADOLPH
IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY.  IN FACT...SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED WITH WINDS BLOWING AWAY
FROM ADOLPH.  BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY...PRIMARILY
BASED ON CONTINUITY...IS 40 KNOTS.  DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AT
THIS TIME BUT SOME INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY REDEVELOP
BEFORE DISSIPATION IN ABOUT A DAY OR SO.

AN EARLIER SSMI PASS CLEARLY REVEALED THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
IS WELL TO THE EAST OF WHATEVER SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS.  THIS MEANS
THAT ADOLPH HAS SLOWED DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND IS MOVING WESTWARD
ABOUT 3 KNOTS.  A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT IS INDICATED AND BECAUSE THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS A DISSIPATING SHALLOW SYSTEM...THERE IS NO POINT 
IN DISCUSSING THE TRACK MODELS.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0900Z 16.1N 112.2W    40 KTS
12HR VT     01/1800Z 16.0N 112.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     02/0600Z 16.0N 112.7W    25 KTS
36HR VT     02/1800Z 16.0N 113.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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