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TROPICAL STORM ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU MAY 31 2001
 
TROPICAL STORM ADOLPH HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DURING THE 
PAST 6 HOURS WHILE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST.  THERE IS LITTLE 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER 
IS BECOMING EXPOSED ON THE EAST SIDE OF WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION 
REMAINS BASED ON 01/00Z VISIBLE...INFRARED...AND TRMM MICROWAVE 
DATA.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND 
SAB AT 00Z.  HOWEVER... ADOLPH HAS WEAKENED EVEN FURTHER SINCE 
THEN...SO A LOWER BUT RATHER GENEROUS 50 KT INITIAL INTENSITY HAS 
BEEN ASSIGNED TO THE SYSTEM BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION 
EVIDENT IN THE 01/0002Z TRMM 37 GHZ DATA.

INITIAL MOTION IS 265/05.  NOW THAT ADOLPH IS BECOMING VERTICALLY  
SHALLOW...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED MORE BY THE MID- AND 
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE AVN...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS 
MAINTAIN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS. 
AFTERWARDS...THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS MAINTAIN THE RIDGE THROUGH 72 
HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND TAKES ADOLPH SLOWLY 
NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST AND KEEPS ADOLPH ON A GENERAL WESTERLY COURSE THROUGH THE 
PERIOD...BUT AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED SIMILAR TO THE UKMET.

ADOLPH APPEARS TO BE GOING IN THE TANK FAIRLY QUICKLY AND MAY NOT 
EVEN BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS TIME TOMORROW.  HOWEVER...THE 
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM 
THROUGH 24 HOURS IN THE EVENT A DIURNAL FLARE UP OF CONVECTION 
OCCURS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER LATER TONIGHT.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY 
MODEL KEEPS ADOLPH AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD...WHICH SEEMS EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE RAPID 
DECREASE IN CONVECTION AND A LARGE FIELD OF COOL STABLE AIR AND 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0300Z 16.2N 112.0W    50 KTS
12HR VT     01/1200Z 16.2N 112.7W    45 KTS
24HR VT     02/0000Z 16.2N 113.4W    40 KTS
36HR VT     02/1200Z 16.3N 114.1W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     03/0000Z 16.4N 114.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     04/0000Z 16.5N 116.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED
 
 
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