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HURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU MAY 31 2001
 
THE CENTER IS HARD TO LOCATE...EVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY.  A
QUIKSCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO SUGGESTED THAT ADOLPH
WAS CENTERED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...BUT
THERE ARE DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DATA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A CONTINUED SLOW WESTWARD
MOTION...270/6.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME SPREAD
WHICH GENERALLY INDICATES A LESS WELL-DEFINED STEERING CURRENT.  AS 
NOTED EARLIER...THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE 
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF ADOLPH...WHICH MAY BLOCK ITS WESTWARD 
MOTION IN A DAY OR SO.

CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS.  THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED DURING THE DAY.  THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE WEAKENED
TO STORM STATUS ON THIS ADVISORY.  THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL...
TRANSIENT...FLAREUPS OF CONVECTION...BUT A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE ADOLPH TO
CONTINUE SPINNING DOWN.  BOTH THE NCEP AND U.K.  MET OFFICE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A NON-EXISTENT CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS...WHEREAS THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE DOES NOT WEAKEN ADOLPH QUITE AS AGRESSIVELY.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS ADOLPH DISSIPATING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/2100Z 16.4N 111.7W    60 KTS
12HR VT     01/0600Z 16.4N 112.6W    55 KTS
24HR VT     01/1800Z 16.5N 113.7W    45 KTS
36HR VT     02/0600Z 16.5N 114.7W    35 KTS
48HR VT     02/1800Z 16.5N 115.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     03/1800Z 16.5N 117.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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