HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU MAY 31 2001

CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS REMAIN 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...I.E. 65 
KNOTS.  SOME BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE OCCURRED NEAR THE CENTER 
OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THEY ARE NOT WELL ORGANIZED.  SINCE ADOLPH IS 
MOVING OVER A MARGINALLY WARM OCEAN...WE EXPECT TO SEE SOME MORE 
INTERMITTENT FLAREUPS OF HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THE SYSTEM 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  OVERALL...HOWEVER...ADOLPH IS ON A 
WEAKENING TREND.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS 
BEFORE...AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE IN THE DISSIPATION PHASE BY THE END 
OF THE PERIOD.

BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED...CENTER FIXES ARE MORE 
UNCERTAIN THAN BEFORE.  HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SOME MORE 
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION...NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 270/7.  AS THE 
SYSTEM WEAKENS...LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING WILL BECOME DOMINANT.  
THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMING 
AHEAD OF ADOLPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS MAY BLOCK THE 
WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SOMEWHAT.  THE OFFICIAL 
TRACK FORECAST TAKES ADOLPH WESTWARD...ONLY A LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN 
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/1500Z 16.4N 111.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     01/0000Z 16.5N 112.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     01/1200Z 16.4N 113.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT     02/0000Z 16.5N 114.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     02/1200Z 16.5N 115.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     03/1200Z 16.5N 117.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
NNNN