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HURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU MAY 31 2001

GOOD FOR THE GLOBAL MODELS.  AS THESE MODELS FORECAST...PRIMARILY
AVN...ADOLPH HAS BEEN WEAKENING FAST.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING AND IN FACT
...ADOLPH DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HURRICANE ON IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...
BECAUSE IT WAS SUCH AN INTENSE HURRICANE AND DVORAK CONSTRAINS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  BUT...MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONSIST OF A TIGHT
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION
LATER TODAY.  A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST.

ADOLPH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM. IT SHOULD THEN BE 
STEERED MORE TOWARD THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION 
IN 72 HOURS OR SO OVER COOLER WATERS. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0900Z 16.4N 110.6W    65 KTS
12HR VT     31/1800Z 16.5N 112.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 16.5N 113.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 16.5N 115.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     02/0600Z 16.5N 116.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     03/0600Z 17.0N 117.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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