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HURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE MAY 29 2001
 
ADOLPH HAS WEAKENED.  THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AND LESS
DISTINCT.  ALSO...CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE CDO HAVE WARMED SUBSTANTIALLY
DURING THE DAY.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 110 KNOTS WHICH IS A
LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED VALUES.  THE CYCLONE WILL
BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS PREDICTED.  DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE AVN
WEAKEN ADOLPH PRACTICALLY TO DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM ENTIRELY REALISTIC.
 
THE MOTION IS JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST...280/10...AND CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY.  THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING.  A DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ADOLPH SHOULD
MAINTAIN A MOSTLY WESTWARD...OR JUST NORTH OF WEST...TRACK FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE GFDL MODEL SLOWS ADOLPHS FORWARD SPEED
CONSIDERABLY AND SHOWS A MEANDERING MOTION IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS DOES NOT SEEM CONSISTENT WITH THE STEERING
PATTERN SHOWN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/2100Z 15.8N 105.7W   110 KTS
12HR VT     30/0600Z 16.0N 107.2W   100 KTS
24HR VT     30/1800Z 16.5N 109.0W    85 KTS
36HR VT     31/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     31/1800Z 17.0N 112.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     01/1800Z 17.0N 115.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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