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HURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE MAY 29 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09.  A SHORTER-TERM FORWARD SPEED 
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IS 10 OR 11 KNOTS.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS 
RIDGING CONTINUING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  
SO THE MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE ABOUT 290/09.  BUT THE 00Z GFDL AND 
UKMET ARE MUCH SLOWER...AND I AM NOT SURE WHY.  OUT OF RESPECT FOR 
THESE MODELS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FORWARD SPEED IS SLOWED
TO 6 KNOTS BY 48 HOURS.  THIS ALSO MAINTAINS SOME CONTINUITY FROM THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 127 KT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
IS KEPT AT 125 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST CALLS FOR 
WEAKENING AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT A LITTLE SLOWER.
THIS IS BECAUSE THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING YET ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE WEAKENING TO BE EVEN SLOWER 
TO OCCUR.

THE 34-KNOT RADIUS IS INCREASED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND 
DECREASED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BASED ON 01Z QUIKSCAT DATA.
THE 50-KNOT RADII ARE ALSO DECREASED.  
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0900Z 15.4N 103.6W   125 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 15.9N 105.0W   125 KTS
24HR VT     30/0600Z 16.4N 106.6W   110 KTS
36HR VT     30/1800Z 16.9N 107.9W   100 KTS
48HR VT     31/0600Z 17.2N 109.3W    90 KTS
72HR VT     01/0600Z 17.5N 111.5W    70 KTS
  
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