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TROPICAL STORM ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN MAY 27 2001
 
THE STORM IS WELL ORGANIZED...WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PLUS
BANDING FEATURES.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT SINCE EARLIER THIS
MORNING...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
NOT QUITE REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH.  FIRST VISUAL IMAGES DO NOT YET
SHOW AN EYE.  IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY.  THERE IS NO STRONG SHEAR OVER THE AREA AND NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER- LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SLIGHT
WEAKENING.

ADOLPH HAS BEEN DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...120/02.  THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NCEP
GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM SHOULD BE AN ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ADOLPH.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DEVELOPING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THIS TRACK
IS MAINLY A BLEND OF THE AVN AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE STILL NOT WELL DEFINED...AND THERE ARE 
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ALL INTERESTS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS 
OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 13.2N  99.6W    60 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 13.0N  99.5W    70 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 13.2N 100.0W    80 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 13.3N 100.5W    85 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 13.5N 101.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 14.5N 102.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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