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TROPICAL STORM ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN MAY 27 2001
 
A CENTER POSITION FROM A RECENT SSMI PASS AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH IR
POSITION ESTIMATES.  THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DRIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS WITH A CONTINUATION OF SLOW FORWARD SPEED.  HOWEVER WITH
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND SLOW MOTION...THE DIRECTION OF MOTION IS
PERHAPS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE ABOVE GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
A RATHER IMPRESSIVE CDO AND BANDING FEATURE HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
NIGHT.   THE LATEST DVORACK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 55 KNOTS FROM 
TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS AND
FORECAST TO HURRICANE FORCE IN 12 HOURS OR SOONER...AND TO LEVEL OFF
AT 80 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS A PEAK OF 85
KNOTS WHILE THE GFDL IS SLIGHTLY LESS AGRESSIVE.  WITH NO EXPECTATION 
OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...WHO KNOWS HOW STRONG ADOLPH 
MIGHT GET.
 
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ALL INTERESTS ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS 
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 13.3N 100.1W    55 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 13.1N 100.3W    65 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 13.2N 100.6W    75 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 13.4N 100.9W    80 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 13.6N 101.3W    80 KTS
72HR VT     30/0600Z 14.0N 102.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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