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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2001
 
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT STATIONARY.  THE AVIATION MODEL 
SHOWS A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT FOR THREE DAYS WITH A 500-MB 
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION DRIFTING EASTWARD FROM BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE NOGAPS MODEL IS EVEN SLOWER THAN 
THE AVIATION AND THE UKMET IS YET SLOWER.  FINALLY THE GFDL MODEL 
KEEPS THE CENTER IN ABOUT THE SAME PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE AND THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A VERY SLOW 290/02 FOR 72 HOURS.   
 
AFTER A DECREASE IN CONVECTION EARLIER...A COLD CDO TYPE FEATURE HAS 
RECENTLY DEVELOPED AND THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE GETTING A LITTLE 
BETTER ORGANIZED. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 01Z SHOWS A CLOSED CIRCULATION 
BUT THE CENTER IS NOT QUITE AS WELL DEFINED AS THE PREVIOUS PASS.    
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT AND 35 KT 
RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AND FORECAST ARE THE SAME AS 
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BECOMING A STORM IN 12 HOURS AND 
STRENGTHENING TO 70 KT IN 48 HOURS.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS 
MODEL AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE GFDL MODEL.

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED FOR MEXICO AT THIS TIME.  SOME 
RAINBANDS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MEXICAN COAST PRIMARILY FROM 
PUERTO ANGEL TO ZIHUATANEJO.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 13.8N 101.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 13.9N 101.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 14.2N 102.1W    50 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 14.3N 102.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 14.5N 103.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 14.8N 104.0W    70 KTS
  
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