HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2001
 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E LOOKS A LITTLE
RAGGED IN EVENING IR IMAGES...WITH NO WELL-DEFINED BANDS OR
CONCENTRATED COLD TOPS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...SO THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION
ON THIS PACKAGE.

THE CYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MEXICO BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS
RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY GIVE THE SYSTEM A PUSH TO THE
WEST.  NHC GUIDANCE DOES NOT ALL AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE
AVN AND THE VARIOUS BAM MODELS FAVOR A WESTWARD TRACK.  THE UKMET
AND THE NOGAPS KEEP THE CYCLONE NEARLY STATIONARY...WHILE THE
GFDL AND NHC91UK SHOW AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE LBAR
PERSISTS IN TRACKING THE CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO...
WHICH APPEARS REALLY UNLIKELY GIVEN PRESENT INDICATIONS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION...SLOWER THAN
THE AVN AND THE BAM MODELS.

 
WHILE CURRENTLY NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED...THE DEPRESSION IS 
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN
IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW INTENSIFICATION.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...
BRING THE CYCLONE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 12 HR AND TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED FOR MEXICO AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...RAINBANDS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MEXICAN COAST 
PRIMARILY FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO ZIHUATANEJO.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 13.8N 101.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 13.9N 101.1W    40 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z 14.0N 101.3W    50 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 14.0N 101.8W    60 KTS
48HR VT     28/0000Z 14.0N 102.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     29/0000Z 14.5N 103.5W    70 KTS
 
 
NNNN