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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST MON DEC 03 2001
 
OLGA HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MOST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
SUPPORT ONLY 30 KNOTS AND OLGA IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STATUS.  OLGA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT STRONG SHEAR SHOULD
PREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM RESTRENGTHENING.
 
OLGA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE EAST ABOUT 6 KNOTS.  BECAUSE THE
SYSTEM IS SHALLOW...IT IS FORECAST TO TURN BACK OR LOOP TO THE 
SOUTHWEST...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE NORTH.  OLGA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A
DAY OR TWO.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0300Z 27.6N  68.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     04/1200Z 27.5N  67.7W    25 KTS
24HR VT     05/0000Z 27.5N  67.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     05/1200Z 26.0N  68.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW 
48HR VT     06/0000Z 25.0N  70.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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