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TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON DEC 03 2001
 
OLGA IS CURRENTLY BEING IMPACTED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
THAT MOVED OFF THE U.S. COAST EARLIER TODAY.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN
AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR
ON THE SYSTEM.  BECAUSE THE CENTER IS STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DEEP 
CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL 
STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF 
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SOME DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN 
OLGA BACK TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO.  ALTHOUGH 
THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE 
OF DAYS...AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL 200 MB WIND 
FORECAST...OLGA SHOULD HAVE WEAKENED TO A MOSTLY NON-CONVECTIVE 
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA BY THAT TIME.  THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND AVN 
MODEL ALL AGREE ON THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BEFORE THE END OF THE 
PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN 
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 

THE MOTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE ABOVEMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD...AND
LEAVE OLGA BEHIND IN 2-3 DAYS.  A MOSTLY EASTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A LOOPING MOTION BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST.  BASED ON THE CURRENT MOVEMENT AND THE LATEST DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAKE THIS LOOP AT A SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERN LATITUDE THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/2100Z 27.6N  69.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     04/0600Z 28.0N  68.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     04/1800Z 28.2N  67.8W    25 KTS
36HR VT     05/0600Z 27.5N  67.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     05/1800Z 27.0N  68.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     06/1800Z 26.0N  70.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
  
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