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TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON DEC 03 2001
 
OLGA HAS A VIGOROUS BUT LIMITED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE
CENTER.  DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BELOW
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE 6Z SHIP REPORT OF 28 KT
CLOSE TO BUT OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION...I HAVE TO PRESUME THAT OLGA IS
STILL MAINTAINING MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT INCREASING WESTERLIES ARE FAST APPROACHING
OLGA...AND WILL BE PRECEDED BY A SHOT OF DRY AIR.  THIS ONE-TWO
PUNCH OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HOURS WILL CERTAINLY WEAKEN OLGA...AND
SHOULD PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO FINISH THE JOB.  HOWEVER AS WE HAVE
SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...OLGA HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT CRITTER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/4.  THE APPROACHING WESTERLIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO TURN OLGA TO THE NORTHEAST SHORTLY.  HOWEVER...ONCE THE
CONVECTION WEAKENS OLGA WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
HEADING WITH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A LOOPING MOTION CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT WITH A LARGER
LOOP.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/1500Z 27.8N  69.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     04/0000Z 28.7N  69.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     04/1200Z 29.3N  68.0W    25 KTS
36HR VT     05/0000Z 29.5N  67.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     05/1200Z 28.5N  68.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     06/1200Z 27.0N  70.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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