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TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN DEC 02 2001
OVERALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL BY TAFB AND SAB...AND
STILL TROPICAL BY THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY. ALL THREE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS AGREE ON 35 KNOTS FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...SO
THIS IS USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SWATH OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF
OLGAS CIRCULATION. THESE WESTERLIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE 18Z RUN OF
THE NCEP GLOBAL...AVN...MODEL INDICATES INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR
OVER OLGA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY A RELAXATION IN
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ALTHOUGH OLGA HAS
BEEN A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE UP TO NOW...IT IS QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER IT WILL ABLE TO SURVIVE THE INCREASING SHEAR...AND BE ABLE
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS LATER ON.
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED TO ABOUT 7 KT. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OFF THE COAST
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ABLE TO CARRY OLGA VERY FAR OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE NUDGED EASTWARD TO
SOME EXTENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OLGAS MOTION WILL
PROBABLY BECOME SLOW AND ERRATIC AFTER THE TROUGH BYPASSES THE
SYSTEM. IN DEFERENCE TO THE LATEST AVN RUN...THE CURRENT NHC
TRACK FORECAST DOES NOT LOOP OLGA BACK AS FAR TO THE WEST BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0300Z 27.3N 69.7W 35 KTS
12HR VT 03/1200Z 28.2N 69.8W 35 KTS
24HR VT 04/0000Z 29.0N 69.6W 35 KTS
36HR VT 04/1200Z 29.4N 69.0W 35 KTS
48HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 68.3W 35 KTS
72HR VT 06/0000Z 28.0N 69.5W 30 KTS
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