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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT DEC 01 2001
 
THE MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY.   
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AS SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY IS A LITTLE RAGGED 
AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW CENTER IS FORMING A SHORT DISTANCE 
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS CENTER POSITION.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN 
EROSION OF THE MID-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AS A 
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVES TO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC IN 48 
HOURS.  THE TRACK MODELS RESPOND BY SHOWING A SLOW MOTION BETWEEN 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD (UKMET AND NOGAPS) AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD (GFDL 
AND AVN).  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF 
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A CONSENSUS OF THE ABOVE GUIDANCE.  
THIS TRACK KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT 
72 HOURS.
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A CONVECTIVE BAND HAS DEVELOPED TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER AND THERE IS SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER.  THERE IS A 31 KNOT SHIP REPORT IN THE BAND.  THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS KEPT 30 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS/AVIATION MODEL VERTICAL
SHEAR IS 22 KNOTS AT 18Z AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 39
KNOTS IN 60 HOURS.  SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION IN
48 HOURS...RATHER THAN 24 HOURS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT
WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IF THE WINDS ACTUALLY INCREASED TO 35
KNOTS OR SO IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE SHIP ALSO PCGR REPORTED 11.5 FT SEAS IN THE BAND TO THE EAST OF 
THE CENTER AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN A RADIUS OF 12 FT SEAS OF 150 N 
MI ON THE EAST SIDE.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/2100Z 23.0N  68.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     02/0600Z 23.3N  69.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     02/1800Z 24.2N  71.1W    30 KTS
36HR VT     03/0600Z 25.0N  72.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     03/1800Z 25.5N  72.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     04/1800Z 26.0N  73.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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