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TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST THU NOV 29 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 220/12.  THE AVIATION MODEL MOVES
THE STORM SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD SUGGESTING THE 
BEGINNING OF AN EROSION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH FROM AN 
APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  IN CONTRAST...THE NOGAPS 
SHOWS A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 3 DAYS.  THE GFDL AND UKMET 
ALSO SHOW A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION IN 2 
DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WITH ONLY A 
SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

EVEN THOUGH DVORAK CURRENT T NUMBERS ARE 4.0...65 KNOTS...DATA T 
NUMBERS ARE 3.5.  AND A 23Z QUIKSCAT SHOWS NO WINDS OVER 45 KNOTS.  
ALSO CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE 
CENTER.  SO THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY DECREASED TO 
60 KNOTS.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE AVIATION MODEL...SHOWS 
CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0900Z 28.9N  59.3W    60 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 27.6N  61.3W    55 KTS
24HR VT     30/0600Z 26.4N  63.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     30/1800Z 25.9N  66.3W    45 KTS
48HR VT     01/0600Z 25.7N  68.1W    40 KTS
72HR VT     02/0600Z 25.5N  70.5W    35 KTS
  
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