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HURRICANE OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE NOV 27 2001

INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED 
A BIT...HOWEVER THE EYE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED. DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...SO THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 80 
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS 
IMPRESSIVE AS 24 HOURS AGO...HOWEVER THE SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.  
ALTHOUGH OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY WARM...COOL AIR IN THE 
UPPER TROPOSPHERE IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO INSTABILITY AND THE 
MAINTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION.  ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS 
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  HOWEVER AN UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN 
VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD LIKELY BRING ABOUT A MORE RADID DECREASE IN 
INTENSITY.

AFTER EXECUTING A CYCLONIC LOOP...OLGA IS MEANDERING...AND 
ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A 
LARGER-SCALE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS PRETTY MUCH 
ISOLATED FROM THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES.  THIS LARGER CIRCULATION 
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...AND BRING OLGA WITH IT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS 
THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION COMMENCING IN A DAY OR SO.  THIS IS A 
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT SLOWER THAN 
THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST 
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL TRACK.  

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 32.3N  55.7W    80 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 32.3N  55.8W    80 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 32.0N  56.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 31.0N  57.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 30.0N  58.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     01/0000Z 28.5N  60.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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