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HURRICANE OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2001
 
OLGA STILL HAS AN EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...TYPICAL OF A HURRICANE.  THERE IS A RAGGED EYE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...A DISTINCT CURVED BAND AND GOOD
OUTFLOW.  T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...CORRESPONDING TO
ABOUT 75 KNOTS.  THE OCEAN IS COOL...BUT ACCORDING THE THE SHIPS
MODEL...THE 200 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION TOWARD INTENSIFICATION.  IN ADDITION...THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW.  THEREFORE...OLGA HAS A CHANCE OF
STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE WEAKENING
BEGINS.  CLIMATOLOGICALLY...SOUTHWARD-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONES
USUALLY WEAKEN.

OLGA HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR LOOPING WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK
STEERING FLOW.  AT THIS TIME IS ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TREND.  BECAUSE
THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE PATTERN
RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF A RIDGE TO NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH...WOULD STEER OLGA TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AVN...NOGAPS AND UK GLOBAL
MODELS.

HIGH SWELLS ARE EXTENDING OUTWARD AND ARE REACHING SOME OF THE NORTH 
COAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 31.5N  57.0W    75 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 31.5N  57.0W    80 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 31.5N  57.0W    80 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 31.5N  57.0W    80 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 31.0N  57.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 29.5N  58.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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