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SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON NOV 26 2001
 
ON THE LARGE SCALE THINGS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE AS THE WIND FIELD
CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE THAT OF A HYBRID OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.  THERE
HAS BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...WHICH HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
ATTEMPTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EYE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 60 KT BASED ON SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS OF 55 TO 65 KT AND THE
EARLIER SHIP REPORT OF 55 KT NEAR THE CENTER.  WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR
IS RELATIVELY WEAK THERE IS STILL NO EVIDENCE OF OUTFLOW AWAY FROM
THE CENTER...AND GIVEN THAT THE SSTS ARE MARGINAL...NO LARGE CHANGES
IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED.  STILL...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT
EYE FEATURE WOULD LIKELY SIGNAL THE TRANSITION TO A HURRICANE.  THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE
WIND RADII CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST TO SHRINK SUBSTANTIALLY.  THIS
ASSUMES THAT THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS EXPECTED AND
THAT THE CYCLONE SEPARATES FROM THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS TO ITS
NORTH.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES IN A LIGHT
STEERING ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AT ALL
LEVELS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY.  THE TRACK
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS VERY DIVERSE.  THE AVIATION AND UKMET GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW ONLY A SLOW MEANDERING TRACK OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL TAKES THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD AT
INCREASING SPEED.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTER
WEAKENS.  THE GFDL TRACK IS AN APPARENT RESPONSE TO THIS...BUT IT IS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE CONVECTION WILL BE VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO RESPOND TO THIS UPPER-LEVEL STEERING INFLUENCE.  
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC IS ENHANCED AHEAD OF A MAJOR TROUGH FORECAST TO BE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A
WESTWARD MOTION BY 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER AND 
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 30.2N  55.6W    60 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 30.3N  55.8W    65 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 30.5N  56.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 30.5N  56.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 30.5N  56.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 30.5N  57.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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