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SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2001
 
THE CORE OF THE STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE THE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF CONVECTION...SYMMETRY...AND WARM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES.  THE CORE
CONVECTION IS ALSO SEPARATED FROM THE NON-TROPICAL WEATHER TO THE
EAST.  BUT AS A  PRACTICAL MATTER...THE 34- AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII
EXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTH WITHOUT CLEAR EVIDENCE OF
SEPARATION.  SO THE CLASSIFICATION WILL REMAIN SUBTROPICAL FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  THE WIND RADII FORECAST SHOWS A SMALL SYMMETRIC WIND 
FIELD AT 24 HOURS.  THIS ASSUMES THAT THE CORE WILL CONTINUE TO 
SEPARATE FROM THE STRONG WINDS FAR FROM THE CENTER. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/14 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS OF MOTION.
THIS IS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD THAN EXPECTED AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE GFDL...AVN AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
FOLLOWED BY RESUMING A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING OVE THE NEXT 72
HOURS.  THE AVN ACTUALLY EXECUTES AN ANTICYLONIC LOOP.  BUT ALL OF
THE MODELS ARE SLOW AS THE STORM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CUT OFF FROM
THE WESTERLIES FOR MANY DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO SLOW 
EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND SHOWS THIS CHANGE IN DIRECTION BUT 
WITH LESS AMPLITUDE THAN THE GUIDANCE.
 
THE SHIP WCOB WAS JUST WEST OF THE CENTER AT 18Z AND REPORTED 55
KNOTS...990 MB...AND 33 FT SEAS.  THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 60
KNOTS.  BEING CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES ALSO MEANS MINIMAL
VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE POSSIBILITY OF INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS TO 65 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL AND SHIPS GO TO
75 KNOTS.  THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANY TREND IN THE CONVECTION AT
PRESENT.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 30.7N  55.7W    60 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 30.5N  57.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 30.6N  58.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 30.8N  59.1W    65 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 30.7N  59.7W    65 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 30.3N  60.3W    60 KTS
 
 
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