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SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE INNER CORE OF THE STORM CONSISTS OF TWO
INNER-LOCKING BANDS.  THIS WARM CORE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
SEPARATING FROM THE OUTER NON-SYMMETRIC BAND TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST WHICH CONSTITUTES THE NON-TROPICAL PART OF THE STORM.  THE
CLASSIFICATION WILL REMAIN SUBTROPICAL...UNTIL AND IF A CLEAR 
DISTINCTION CAN BE MADE BETWEEN THE 34 KNOT WIND RADII OF THE INNER 
CORE AND THE NON TROPICAL WEATHER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13 BASED ON PAST 18 HOURS.  A SHORTER 
PERIOD MOTION MIGHT BE FASTER.  THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE SHOWS SLOW 
MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH DISAGREEMENT IN DIRECTION.  A 
SLOW MOSTLY WESTWARD FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE 
GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING THE WIND SPEED TO 75 TO 80 KNOTS 
WHILE THE AVIATION AND UKMET MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND 
SPEED.  THE OFF FORECAST TO 65 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS IS ALSO A CONSENSUS 
OF THE GUIDANCE.

THE WIND RADII ARE REDUCED TO A SMALL SYMMETRIC SHAPE IN 24 HOURS TO 
REFLECT THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE NON-TROPICAL PORTION OF THE WIND 
FIELD WILL SEPARATE OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 31.8N  53.9W    55 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 31.8N  55.4W    60 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 32.0N  56.4W    65 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 32.3N  57.4W    65 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 32.2N  58.3W    60 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 32.0N  59.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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